Development and evaluation of a risk prediction tool for risk-adapted screening of colorectal cancer in China.
Cancer Lett
; 597: 217057, 2024 Aug 10.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38876387
ABSTRACT
Risk prediction tools for colorectal cancer (CRC) have potential to improve the efficiency of population-based screening by facilitating risk-adapted strategies. However, such an applicable tool has yet to be established in the Chinese population. In this study, a risk score was created using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide cohort study of 409,854 eligible participants. Diagnostic performance of the risk score was evaluated in an independent CRC screening programme, which included 91,575 participants who accepted colonoscopy at designed hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. Over a median follow-up of 11.1 years, 3136 CRC cases were documented in the CKB. A risk score was created based on nine questionnaire-derived variables, showing moderate discrimination for 10-year CRC risk (C-statistic = 0.68, 95 % CI 0.67-0.69). In the CRC screening programme, the detection rates of CRC were 0.25 %, 0.82 %, and 1.93 % in low-risk (score <6), intermediate-risk (score 6-19), and high-risk (score >19) groups, respectively. The newly developed score exhibited a C-statistic of 0.65 (95 % CI 0.63-0.66), surpassing the widely adopted tools such as the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), modified APCS, and Korean Colorectal Screening scores (all C-statistics = 0.60). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk prediction tool that is useful to identify individuals at high risk of CRC. A user-friendly online calculator was also constructed to encourage broader adoption of the tool.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Colorectal Neoplasms
/
Colonoscopy
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Early Detection of Cancer
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
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Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
Cancer Lett
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article