[Spatiotemporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Thermal Environment Based on SEM Model: A Case Study in Xi'an Metropolitan Area].

ABSTRACT

The urban thermal environment is an important indicator for evaluating the ecological environment of a city. It directly affects the health of residents and the sustainable development of the urban economy. However, there is currently a lack of analysis on the impact pathways of the thermal environment considering both natural and human factors. Based on the MODIS MYD11A2 land surface temperature data, meteorological data, and human activity data of Xi'an metropolitan area in 2020, ArcGIS spatial geostatistical analysis was used to study the temporal and spatial distribution pattern of the thermal environment in different seasons, and redundancy analysis was utilized to select the main factors affecting the thermal environment. Then, structural equation modeling was used to quantify the direct and indirect effects of the dominant factors on the urban thermal environment. The results showed that① The surface temperature in the Xi'an urban area showed a spatial pattern of higher temperatures in the north and lower temperatures in the south, with a decrease in temperature from the city center to the surrounding areas. The most severe heat environment pollution occurred in the summer. ② The redundancy analysis (RDA) results indicated that the main factors that affected the thermal environment were air temperature, impermeable surfaces, vegetation, and precipitation. ③ The results of the structural equation modeling (SEM) indicated that meteorological, surface, and anthropogenic factors affected the urban thermal environment mainly through direct pathways, which were much more important than all indirect pathways. Factors such as temperature, impervious surfaces, and point of interest density had a significant positive effect on the thermal environment (0.10 and 0.33). On the other hand, factors such as water bodies, precipitation, and vegetation had a significant negative effect on the thermal environment (-0.29 and -0.25). Human activities had a greater direct impact on nocturnal surface temperatures than surface and meteorological factors. Increasing economic efficiency is beneficial for mitigating the urban heat island effect. The results of the study can provide a reference for studying local climate change in urban heat islands and for the construction of green and ecologically livable urban environments.