Metabolism score and machine learning models for the prediction of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma progression.

ABSTRACT

The incomplete prediction of prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients is attributed to various therapeutic interventions and complex prognostic factors. Consequently, there is a pressing demand for enhanced predictive biomarkers that can facilitate clinical management and treatment decisions. This study recruited 491 ESCC patients who underwent surgical treatment at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University. We incorporated 14 blood metabolic indicators and identified independent prognostic indicators for overall survival through univariate and multivariate analyses. Subsequently, a metabolism score formula was established based on the biochemical markers. We constructed a nomogram and machine learning models utilizing the metabolism score and clinically significant prognostic features, followed by an evaluation of their predictive accuracy and performance. We identified alkaline phosphatase, free fatty acids, homocysteine, lactate dehydrogenase, and triglycerides as independent prognostic indicators for ESCC. Subsequently, based on these five indicators, we established a metabolism score that serves as an independent prognostic factor in ESCC patients. By utilizing this metabolism score in conjunction with clinical features, a nomogram can precisely predict the prognosis of ESCC patients, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89. The random forest (RF) model showed superior predictive ability (AUC = 0.90, accuracy = 86%, Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.55). Finally, we used an RF model with optimal performance to establish an online predictive tool. The metabolism score developed in this study serves as an independent prognostic indicator for ESCC patients.