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Aircraft turnaround time dynamic prediction based on Time Transition Petri Net.
Cui, Yanyu; Ma, Linyan; Ding, Qingmiao; He, Xuan; Xiao, Fanghui; Cheng, Bin.
Affiliation
  • Cui Y; College of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China.
  • Ma L; College of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China.
  • Ding Q; College of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China.
  • He X; The Second Research Institute of CAAC, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
  • Xiao F; Shenzhen Airport (Group) Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, Guangzhou, China.
  • Cheng B; College of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China.
PLoS One ; 19(7): e0305237, 2024.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39024278
ABSTRACT
Accurate aircraft turnaround time prediction is an important way to coordinate the operation time of airport ground service and improve the efficiency of airport operation. In this paper, by analyzing the aircraft turnaround operation process, a description model based on Time Transition Petri Net is proposed. The model describes the flight turnaround operation process and the logical relationship of the operation. According to the model, a dynamic prediction method of turnaround time based on Bayesian theorem is designed. According to the actual landing time of the flight, the aircraft turnaround time is predicted. The specific method is to obtain the prior probability distribution and joint distribution law of each operation link according to the flight history data, and use Shapiro-Wilke to test the prior probability distribution of each link. Based on the analysis and comparison between the actual turnaround data of a large airport in China and the forecast data proposed in this paper, the root-mean-square error 3.75 minutes and the mean absolute error 3.40 minutes can be calculated. This paper contributes to the improvement of flight punctuality rate and airport clearance level.
Subject(s)

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Aircraft / Bayes Theorem / Airports Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: En Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Year: 2024 Document type: Article Affiliation country: China Country of publication: Estados Unidos

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Aircraft / Bayes Theorem / Airports Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: En Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Year: 2024 Document type: Article Affiliation country: China Country of publication: Estados Unidos