The trend analysis of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among the elderly aged 50 to 69 years from 1990 to 2030.

ABSTRACT

Background: The HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) excluding HIV among the elderly population urgently require more attention and in-depth study. We aimed to present and predict the worldwide of its burden from 1990 to 2030 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods: Leveraging the 2019 GBD study, we investigated the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of HIV and other STI in incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates for individuals aged 50-69 across different age groups, genders, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and nations. The incidence of STI in the population from 2020 to 2030 was explored by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model. Results: The HIV incidence rate experienced its fastest growth 1990-1992, peaked in 1996, and gradually declined thereafter, with the 2019 rate being lower than that of 1990. The prevalence rate didn't present a sharp turning point. After 2006, its growth rate accelerated. Both DALYs and mortality rates plateaued high between 2002 and 2005, followed by a decline. The decline was steepest from 2005-2012, yet the rate of decrease slowed noticeably from 2012-2019.When segmented by age, HIV was more prevalent among those aged 55-59 and 50-54, with the 50-54 age group witnessing the fastest decline in incidence rates. However, the fastest growth in prevalence rates was seen among the 60-64 and 65-69 age groups. The other STI incidence rate declined from 1990-1996, increased up to 2006, declined until 2015, and then saw a resurgence with accelerated growth thereafter. The prevalence rate showcased varied trends, with a notable increase in the past five years. The highest growth in incidence rate was among the 65-69 age group. We predict that the incidence rate of STI will increase in the future. Conclusions: Overall, despite the evident decline in incidence, mortality rates, and DALYs, the prevalence of HIV and other STI among the elderly is rising, and both demonstrated significant trend variations across different ages, genders, SDI regions, and nations. Comprehensive sexual health education, clinical care and adjustments in health service strategies based on the evolving trends of HIV and other STI among the elderly are paramount.