Efficient uncertainty quantification in a spatially multiscale model of pulmonary arterial and venous hemodynamics.

ABSTRACT

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a debilitating disease that alters the structure and function of both the proximal and distal pulmonary vasculature. This alters pressure-flow relationships in the pulmonary arterial and venous trees, though there is a critical knowledge gap in the relationships between proximal and distal hemodynamics in disease. Multiscale computational models enable simulations in both the proximal and distal vasculature. However, model inputs and measured data are inherently uncertain, requiring a full analysis of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the model. Thus, this study quantifies model sensitivity and output uncertainty in a spatially multiscale, pulse-wave propagation model of pulmonary hemodynamics. The model includes fifteen proximal arteries and twelve proximal veins, connected by a two-sided, structured tree model of the distal vasculature. We use polynomial chaos expansions to expedite sensitivity and uncertainty quantification analyses and provide results for both the proximal and distal vasculature. We quantify uncertainty in blood pressure, blood flow rate, wave intensity, wall shear stress, and cyclic stretch. The latter two are important stimuli for endothelial cell mechanotransduction. We conclude that, while nearly all the parameters in our system have some influence on model predictions, the parameters describing the density of the microvascular beds have the largest effects on all simulated quantities in both the proximal and distal arterial and venous circulations.