Development and validation of a nomogram of all-cause mortality in adult Americans with diabetes.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model of all-cause mortality risk in American adults aged ≥ 18 years with diabetes. 7918 participants with diabetes were enrolled from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2016 and followed for a median of 96 months. The primary study endpoint was the all-cause mortality. Predictors of all-cause mortality included age, Monocytes, Erythrocyte, creatinine, Nutrition Risk Index (NRI), neutrophils/lymphocytes (NLR), smoking habits, alcohol consumption, cardiovascular disease (CVD), urinary albumin excretion rate (UAE), and insulin use. The c-index was 0.790 (95% CI 0.779-0.801, P < 0.001) and 0.792 (95% CI 0.776-0.808, P < 0.001) for the training and validation sets, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.815, 0.814, 0.827 and 0.812, 0.818 and 0.829 for the training and validation sets at 3, 5, and 10 years of follow-up, respectively. Both calibration plots and DCA curves performed well. The model provides accurate predictions of the risk of death for American persons with diabetes and its scores can effectively determine the risk of death in outpatients, providing guidance for clinical decision-making and predicting prognosis for patients.