Water transfer contributes to water resources management: Crisis mitigation for future water allocation in the Yellow River basin.

ABSTRACT

Optimizing water allocation is a crucial strategy for water planning in large basins, such as the Yellow River basin. The transforming water supply pattern, triggered by inter-basin water transfer, urges the optimization and refinement of water allocation. Here, we predict the future water demand for different sectors at the provincial level and carry out future water allocation based on a multi-objective allocation model. The results imply that "demand increases in midstream and water deficits in downstream" would persist by 2050, and the demand structure highlights potential sectoral rivalry for water resources in each province. Water transfer will be the "antidote" to water disputes and will account for 19.8% and 34.5% of the water demand in 2030 and 2050, respectively. This study provides a basis for the policymaking of water management and establishes the future allocation pattern from water resources to sectors in each province in the Yellow River basin.