Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting the risk of syncope after craniomaxillofacial surgery.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To explore the influencing factors of syncope in patients after plastic surgery, establish a syncope risk prediction model, and verify its accuracy. METHODS: A total of 265 patients undergoing craniomaxillofacial surgery were included and divided into a syncope group and non-syncope group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors of syncope, and R language was used to establish a risk prediction nomogram of syncope in craniomaxillofacial surgery patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the fit of the model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive value of the model. RESULTS: Syncope occurred in 87 of 265 patients (32.8%), and no syncope occurred in 178 patients (67.8%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed statistical differences in age, orthostatic heart rate, orthostatic diastolic blood pressure, syncope history, weight loss history, and medication history between the 2 groups (P < 0.05). A nomogram was constructed for predicting the risk of syncope after craniomaxillofacial surgery, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test proved that the nomogram fitted well (P = 0.431). The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the alignment graph model had high prediction accuracy; the area under the curve was 0.886 (95% confidence interval, 0.8381-0.9332). CONCLUSION: Evaluating the risk of syncope after craniomaxillofacial surgery is helpful and provides guidance for the formulation of preventive strategies.