Pancreatic necrosis volume is closely associated with late-onset vascular complications after discharge in necrotizing pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To explore the incidence, dynamic changes, prognostic factors and prognosis of late-onset vascular complications after discharge in patients with necrotizing pancreatitis (NP), and determine the relationship between the pancreatic necrosis volume (PNV) and late-onset vascular complications. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study that included NP patients who did not have any vascular complications during index hospitalization. Computed tomography (CT) examinations were performed, and the PNV was calculated based on the picture archiving and communication system. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to determine the potential prognostic factors for late-onset vascular complications after discharge. RESULTS: A total of 35.6 % (37/104) of the patients had late-onset portal venous system involvement during the one-year follow-up period, including 35 patients with stenosis and 2 patients with occlusion. No venous thrombosis or arterial vascular complications were observed. PNV > 134 cm3 (OR, 7.08, 95 % CI 1.83-27.36; P = 0.005) and pancreatic necrosis involving the body and/or tail of the pancreas (OR, 10.05; 95 % CI, 2.66-38.02; P = 0.001) were prognostic factors for abnormal patency of the portal venous system. The abnormal patency of the portal venous system tended to persist during follow-up, and gastric varices were observed in 32.4 % (12/37) of the patients in the abnormal patency group without any symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Late-onset vascular complications involving venous stenosis or occlusion were common in NP patients after discharge, approximately one third of whom developed gastric varices. PNV and the location of necrosis were closely associated with the development of these complications.