Do modern climatic niches distinguish extinct and extant plant genera in New Zealand?

ABSTRACT

Past climate changes have had large impacts on modern ecological patterns. Understanding if legacies are distinguishable in the climatic niches of extant and locally extinct taxa can provide insight into the importance of climate in extinction events. To better understand mid- to late-Cenozoic New Zealand plant extinctions, which are often attributed to Cenozoic climate cooling, we identify 13 con-familial extinct and extant New Zealand genus pairs, which have modern distributions in Australia. Using climatic niches derived from current geographic distributions in Australia, we compared (i) total niche breadth, (ii) niche overlap, and (iii) individual climate parameters, to investigate potential climate drivers of intrafamilial extinction and persistence patterns in New Zealand. A majority of New Zealand extinct genera (9 out of 13 pairs) do not indicate climate niche legacies consistent with susceptibility to extinction from changing climates, while the remaining four extinct/extant pairs show slight climatic niche legacies. Three extinct genera have warmer niches than their extant counterpart, which is consistent with extinction reflecting intolerance of cooling Cenozoic climates. The other genus pair with a climatic niche legacy has an extinct genus that is distinguished by a niche with smaller precipitation seasonality than its extant counterpart, suggesting that climate metrics other than temperature may also be important extinction drivers in some taxa. Our results show that the mechanisms of Cenozoic extinctions of New Zealand genera are likely more complex than taxa reaching environmental tolerances due to cooling climates. Comparisons of current climatic niches between extant and extinct sister taxa can provide useful insights into large-scale, long-term climatic legacies but more analyses, including trait and phylogeographic patterns, would lead to additional insights into alternative pathways of extinction.