Modelling the role of tourism in the spread of HIV: A case study from Malaysia.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to assess the role of tourism in the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) using Malaysian epidemiological data on HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence from 1986 to 2004. A population-level mathematical model was developed with the following compartments the population susceptible to HIV infection, the clinically confirmed HIV-positive population, the population diagnosed with AIDS, and the tourist population. Additionally, newborns infected with HIV were considered. Sensitivity analyses and variations in fixed parameter values were used to explore the effect of changes to various parameter values on HIV incidence in the model. It was determined that variations in the rate of HIV-positive inbound tourist entries and the rate of foreign tourist exits (i.e., the duration of time tourists spent in Malaysia) significantly impacted the predicted incidence of HIV and AIDS in Malaysia. The model's fit to observed HIV and AIDS incidence was evaluated, resulting in adjusted R2 values of 53.3% and 53.2% for HIV and AIDS, respectively. Furthermore, the reproduction number (R0) was also calculated to quantify the stability of the HIV endemicity in Malaysia. The findings suggest that a steady-state level of HIV in Malaysia is achievable based on the low value of R 0  = 0.0136, and the disease-free equilibrium was stable from the negative eigenvalues obtained, which is encouraging from a public health perspective. The Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) values between the proportion of newborns born HIV-positive, the rate of Malaysian tourist entries returning home after contracting HIV, and the rate of foreign tourist exits have a significant impact on the R 0 . The methods provide a framework for epidemiological modelling of HIV spread through transient population groups. The model results suggest that the role of tourism should not be overlooked within the set of available measures to mitigate the spread of HIV.