Predictive value of early postoperative blood lipid metabolism for anastomotic leakage after esophageal cancer surgery.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the clinical value of assessing early postoperative blood lipid metabolism levels in predicting anastomotic leakage (AL) after esophageal cancer (EC) surgery. METHODS: The clinical data of EC patients who underwent surgery at the Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital from May 2021 to May 2023 were retrospectively studied. Totally, 28 patients who developed AL were included in the AL group, while 110 patients who did not develop AL were included in the non-AL group. Outcomes compared between the two groups included clinical baseline data, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative AL. The predictive value of early postoperative blood lipid metabolism levels for AL was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The AL group exhibited significantly elevated levels of TC and LDL-C but significantly reduced HDL-C levels compared to the non-AL group (all P<0.05). However, there was no significant difference in triglyceride levels between the two groups (P>0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BMI (P=0.012; OR 4.409; 95% CI 1.391-13.976), comorbid hypertension (P=0.011; OR 5.891; 95% CI 1.492-23.259), comorbid diabetes (P=0.022; OR 4.522; 95% CI 1.238-16.521), low HDL-C (P=0.007; OR 19.965; 95% CI 2.293-173.809), and high LDL-C (P=0.012; OR 4.321; 95% CI 1.388-13.449) were independent risk factors for developing AL after EC surgery. The combined prediction model using TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.876, with a sensitivity of 79.09%, specificity of 85.71%, and overall accuracy of 80.44%, significantly outperforming individual lipid measurements. CONCLUSION: The combined assessment of TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C can effectively predict the occurrence of AL after EC surgery. For EC patients with relatively low BMI, hypertension, diabetes, relatively low HDL-C, and relatively high LDL-C, prioritizing weight management, hypertension and diabetes control, and lipid management can significantly reduce the risk of AL post-surgery.