Descriptive and predictive time series analysis of premature mortality from noncommunicable disease among Filipinos
Acta Medica Philippina
; : 144-151, 2016.
Article
in En
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-632746
Responsible library:
WPRO
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
The problem of increasing mortality from noncommunicable disease (NCD) in the Philippines warrants an in-depth assessment of premature death rate in the country. This research aims to explore the temporal characteristics of mortality younger than 70 years old from the leading NCD among Filipinos from 2006 to 2012 and forecast premature mortality rates in 2013 to 2016.METHODS:
Time series modeling and forecasting using the Box-Jenkins method was performed on secondary ecologic data extracted from the national mortality database maintained by the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office.RESULTS:
Premature death rate from cardiovascular diseases has been increasing steadily. Diabetes mellitus, which shows initially rising mortality among the 30-69-year-old age group, has been reversed in 2009. Trends of premature mortality from cancers and chronic lung diseases did not appear to change over time. NCD mortality rates in the 30-69-year-old age group are generally expected to plateau from 2013 onwards.CONCLUSION:
This novel application of time series analysis on premature NCD mortality data drives both further scientific studies and formal programmatic evaluation by providing a better evidence-based picture of NCD burden in the country.Key words
Full text:
1
Database:
WPRIM
Main subject:
Philippines
/
Population
/
Cardiovascular Diseases
/
Mortality
/
Diabetes Mellitus
/
Mortality, Premature
/
Life Style
/
Lung Diseases
/
Neoplasms
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
Acta Medica Philippina
Year:
2016
Document type:
Article