Rate of incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis.
Cancer
; 85(10): 2132-7, 1999 May 15.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-10326690
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Cirrhosis of viral etiology due to hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The current study evaluated the rate of incidence of HCC in patients with compensated cirrhosis of viral etiology.METHODS:
Two hundred fifty-nine cirrhotic patients (66 hepatitis B surface antigen [HBsAg] positive, 166 HCV positive, and 27 HBsAg/HCV positive) were longitudinally examined every 6 months by serum alpha-fetoprotein test and liver ultrasonography. The rates of incidence of HCC were calculated by the person-years method. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of HCC development. Differences in survival time were evaluated by a log rank test. Independent predictors of HCC development were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.RESULTS:
During a mean follow-up of 64.5 months, HCC developed in 51 (19.7%) patients in 34 of 166 HCV positive subjects (20.5%) (mean follow-up, 66.3 months), in 6 of 66 of those HBsAg positive (9.1%) (mean follow-up, 55.06 months), and in 11 of 27 of those with dual HBsAg/HCV infection (40.7%) (mean follow-up, 76.4 months). The rate of incidence of HCC per 100 person-years of follow-up was 3.7 in HCV positive subjects, 2.0 in those HBsAg positive, and 6.4 in those with dual infection. Cumulative HCC appearance rates in HBsAg positive, HCV positive, and HBsAg/HCV positive subgroups were 10%, 21%, and 23% at 5 years, 16%, 28%, and 45% at 10 years, and 16%, 40%, and 55% at 13 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that age >50 years (hazard risk [HR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1-9.4), male gender (HR, 2.8; 95% CI = 1.1-5.3), and HBsAg/HCV coinfection (HR, 2.3; 95% CI = 1.1-4.6) were independent predictors of HCC development.CONCLUSIONS:
These findings confirm that male gender and more advanced age (>50 years) are risk factors for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermore, the data indicate that subjects with dual HBsAg/HCV infection are at highest risk for HCC. Surveillance programs for early detection of HCC should focus especially on these patients.
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Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Hepatitis C
/
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/
Risk Assessment
/
Hepatitis B
/
Liver Cirrhosis
/
Liver Neoplasms
Type of study:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Language:
En
Journal:
Cancer
Year:
1999
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Italy