Modelling food safety and economic consequences of surveillance and control strategies for Salmonella in pigs and pork.

ABSTRACT

Targets for maximum acceptable levels of Salmonella in pigs and pork are to be decided. A stochastic simulation model accounting for herd and abattoir information was used to evaluate food safety and economic consequences of different surveillance and control strategies, based among others on Danish surveillance data. An epidemiological module simulated the Salmonella carcass prevalence for different scenarios. Cost-effectiveness analysis was used to compare the costs of the different scenarios with their expected effectiveness. Herd interventions were not found sufficient to attain Salmonella carcass prevalence <1%. The cost-effectiveness of abattoir interventions changed with abattoir size. The most cost-effective strategy included the use of steam vacuum and steam ultrasound. Given uncertainty of the effect of steam vacuum and steam ultrasound, model results should be updated as more information becomes available. This framework contributes to informed decision-making for a more cost-effective surveillance and control of Salmonella in pigs and pork.