Carotid intima-media thickness is associated with incidence of hospitalized atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) is a measure of arterial thickening and a risk predictor for myocardial infarction and stroke. It is unclear whether IMT also predicts atrial fibrillation (AF). We explored the association between IMT and incidence of first AF hospitalization in a population-based cohort. METHODS: IMT was measured in 4846 subjects from the general population (aged 46-68 years, 60% women) without a history of AF, heart failure or myocardial infarction. The Swedish in-patient register was used for retrieval of AF cases. IMT was studied in relation to incidence of AF. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.3 years, 353 subjects (181 men, 172 women, 4.8 per 1000 person-years) were hospitalized with a diagnosis of AF. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for incidence of AF was 1.61 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.27) for 4th vs. 1st quartile of IMT in the common carotid artery. This relationship was also independent of occurrence of carotid plaque. The results were similar for IMT in the bifurcation. CONCLUSION: Carotid IMT was independently associated with incidence of hospitalized AF in this study of middle-aged subjects from the general population. The results suggest that arterial thickening can predict future AF.