Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 15(1)2017 12 29.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29286297
ABSTRACT
Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Dysentery, Bacillary
/
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
/
Meteorological Concepts
Type of study:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
Int J Environ Res Public Health
Year:
2017
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
China