Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group.
J Surg Oncol
; 117(5): 868-878, 2018 Apr.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29448303
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The risk of recurrence after resection of non-metastatic gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) is poorly defined. We developed/validated a nomogram to predict risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection.METHODS:
A training set to develop the nomogram and test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using c-indices.RESULTS:
Among 1477 patients, 673 (46%) were included in the training set and 804 (54%) in y the test set. On multivariable analysis, Ki-67, tumor size, nodal status, and invasion of adjacent organs were independent predictors of DFS. The risk of death increased by 8% for each percentage increase in the Ki-67 index (HR 1.08, 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P < 0.001). GEP-NET invading adjacent organs had a HR of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.03-2.65; P = 0.038), similar to tumors ≥3 cm (HR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.11-2.51; P = 0.014). Patients with 1-3 positive nodes and patients with >3 positive nodes had a HR of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.12-2.87; P = 0.014) and 2.51 (95% CI, 1.50-4.24; P < 0.001), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated good ability to predict risk of recurrence (c-index training set, 0.739; test set, 0.718).CONCLUSION:
The nomogram was able to predict the risk of recurrence and can be easily applied in the clinical setting.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Neuroendocrine Tumors
/
Nomograms
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Gastrointestinal Neoplasms
/
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
Type of study:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Language:
En
Journal:
J Surg Oncol
Year:
2018
Document type:
Article