[Accuracy of ASGE predictors in diagnosis of coledocolithiasis in a public hospital of Lima, Peru]. / Precisión de los predictores de la ASGE en el diagnóstico de coledocolitiasis en un hospital público de Lima, Perú.

BACKGROUND: The predictors proposed by the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) are commonly used topredict the presence and management of choledocholithiasis. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance and precision of thepredictors of choledocholithiasis proposed by ASGE. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective and longitudinal study performed ata third level hospital during January 2015 to June 2017. All patients with high and intermediate probability of choledocholithiasiswho underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) were included according to the criteria proposedby the ASGE. RESULTS: A total of 246 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis were analyzed. Of the 228 patients withhigh probability criteria 144 (63.2% = performance) had choledocholithiasis in ERCP with an accuracy of 62% (sensitivity:94.1% and specificity: 9.7%). Among the 18 patients with intermediate probability criteria, 9 (50% = performance) hadcholedocholithiasis with an accuracy of 38% (sensitivity: 5.9% and specificity: 90.3%). In the multivariate analysis, the presenceof stone in the bile duct by ultrasonography (OR: 1.937, 95% CI 1.048-3.580, p=0.035) and age 55 and over (OR: 2.121, 95%CI, 1.101-4.088, p=0.025) were the strongest predictors for choledocholithiasis. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the criteriaof the ASGE to predict the probability of choledocholithiasis, in our population has a performance greater than 50%, however,it is necessary to improve these parameters to avoid an unnecessary performance of ERCP.