A Systematic Assessment of Prevalence, Incidence and Regional Distribution of Multiple Sclerosis in Bavaria From 2006 to 2015.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Worldwide, incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) have increased over the last decades. We present a systematic epidemiological study with recent prevalence and incidence rates of MS in Bavaria. Methods: Incidence and prevalence of MS stratified by gender, age groups and region were analyzed by data records from 2006 to 2015 of more than 10 million people insured by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. Official statistics of the German Federal Ministry of Health provided the size of the general population. Future prevalence was estimated with a predictive model. Results: From 2006 to 2015 prevalence of MS in Bavaria increased from 171 per 100,000 to 277 per 100,000, while incidence rates remained relatively stable (range 16-18 per 100,000 inhabitants with a female to male ratio between 2.41 and 21). Incidence and prevalence were higher in urban than urbanized and rural areas. The prevalence is expected to increase to 374 per 100,000 in 2040 with the highest prevalence rates between 50 and 65 years. Conclusion: The prevalence of MS in Bavaria is among the highest worldwide and will further rise over the next two decades. This demonstrates a need to strengthen healthcare provision systems due to the increasing numbers of particularly older patients with MS in the future.