Regulation of atmospheric circulation controlling the tropical Pacific precipitation change in response to CO2 increases.

The spatial pattern of precipitation responses to CO2 concentration increases significantly influences global weather and climate variability by altering the location of tropical heating in a warmer climate. In this study, we analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections of tropical Pacific rainfall response to quadrupled increase of CO2. We found that the precipitation changes to the CO2 concentration increase cannot be interpreted by a weakening or strengthening of large-scale east-west coupling across the tropical Pacific basin, i.e., Walker circulation. By calculating the water vapor transport, we suggest instead that different responses of the Walker and Hadley circulations to the increasing CO2 concentration shape the details of the spatial pattern of precipitation in the tropical Pacific. Therefore, more regionally perturbed circulations over the tropical Pacific, which is influenced by the mean state change in the tropical Pacific and the enhanced precipitation outside the tropical Pacific, lead to greater increases in precipitation in the western equatorial Pacific as compared to the eastern tropical Pacific in a warmer climate.