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Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England.
Harcourt, S E; Morbey, R A; Smith, G E; Loveridge, P; Green, H K; Pebody, R; Rutter, J; Yeates, F A; Stuttard, G; Elliot, A J.
Affiliation
  • Harcourt SE; Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team,Field Service,National Infection Service,Public Health England,Birmingham,UK.
  • Morbey RA; Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team,Field Service,National Infection Service,Public Health England,Birmingham,UK.
  • Smith GE; Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team,Field Service,National Infection Service,Public Health England,Birmingham,UK.
  • Loveridge P; Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team,Field Service,National Infection Service,Public Health England,Birmingham,UK.
  • Green HK; Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team,Field Service,National Infection Service,Public Health England,Birmingham,UK.
  • Pebody R; Respiratory Diseases Department,National Infection Service,Public Health England,London,UK.
  • Rutter J; NHS Pathways,NHS Digital,Leeds,UK.
  • Yeates FA; Advanced,Ashford,UK.
  • Stuttard G; NHS England,Birmingham,UK.
  • Elliot AJ; Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team,Field Service,National Infection Service,Public Health England,Birmingham,UK.
Epidemiol Infect ; 147: e163, 2019 01.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31063101
Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are common causes of respiratory tract infections and place a burden on health services each winter. Systems to describe the timing and intensity of such activity will improve the public health response and deployment of interventions to these pressures. Here we develop early warning and activity intensity thresholds for monitoring influenza and RSV using two novel data sources: general practitioner out-of-hours consultations (GP OOH) and telehealth calls (NHS 111). Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) thresholds were developed for winter 2017-2018. The NHS 111 cold/flu threshold was breached several weeks in advance of other systems. The NHS 111 RSV epidemic threshold was breached in week 41, in advance of RSV laboratory reporting. Combining the use of MEM thresholds with daily monitoring of NHS 111 and GP OOH syndromic surveillance systems provides the potential to alert to threshold breaches in real-time. An advantage of using thresholds across different health systems is the ability to capture a range of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which may reflect differences in disease severity. This study also provides a quantifiable measure of seasonal RSV activity, which contributes to our understanding of RSV activity in advance of the potential introduction of new RSV vaccines.
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Sentinel Surveillance / Influenza, Human Type of study: Screening_studies Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: En Journal: Epidemiol Infect Journal subject: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS / EPIDEMIOLOGIA Year: 2019 Document type: Article Country of publication: United kingdom

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Sentinel Surveillance / Influenza, Human Type of study: Screening_studies Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: En Journal: Epidemiol Infect Journal subject: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS / EPIDEMIOLOGIA Year: 2019 Document type: Article Country of publication: United kingdom