Impact of tax and tobacco-free generation on health-adjusted life years in the Solomon Islands: a multistate life table simulation.
Tob Control
; 29(4): 388-397, 2020 07.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31227649
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To estimate health-adjusted life years (HALY) gained in the Solomon Islands for the 2016 population over the remainder of their lives, for threeinterventions:
hypothetical eradication of cigarettes; 25% annual tax increases to 2025 such that tax represents 70% of sales price of tobacco; and a tobacco-free generation (TFG).DESIGN:
We adapted an existing multistate life table model, using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and other data inputs, including diseases contributing >5% of the GBD estimated disability-adjusted life years lost in the Solomon Islands in 2016. Tax effects used price increases and price elasticities to change cigarette smoking prevalence. The TFG was modelled by no uptake of smoking among those 20 years and under after 2016.RESULTS:
Under business as usual (BAU) smoking prevalence decreased over time, and decreased faster under the tax intervention (especially for younger ages). For example, for 20-year-old males the best estimated prevalence in 2036 was 22.9% under BAU, reducing to 14.2% under increased tax. Eradicating tobacco in 2016 would achieve 1510 undiscounted HALYs per 1000 people alive in 2016, over the remainder of their lives. The tax intervention would achieve 370 HALYs per 1000 (24.5% of potential health gain), and the TFG 798 HALYs per 1000 people (52.5%). By time horizon, 10.5% of the HALY gains from tax and 8.0% from TFG occur from 2016 to 2036, and the remainder at least 20 years into the future.CONCLUSION:
This study quantified the potential of two tobacco control policies over maximum health gains achievable through tobacco eradication in the Solomon Islands.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Taxes
/
Tobacco Use Cessation
/
Tobacco Products
/
Tobacco Use
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspects:
Patient_preference
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Language:
En
Journal:
Tob Control
Journal subject:
TRANSTORNOS RELACIONADOS COM SUBSTANCIAS
Year:
2020
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Australia