Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
Dtsch Arztebl Int
; 116(31-32): 521-527, 2019 08 05.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31554538
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C.METHODS:
Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation.RESULTS:
In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively.CONCLUSION:
The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Temperature
/
Climate Change
/
Myocardial Infarction
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
En
Journal:
Dtsch Arztebl Int
Journal subject:
MEDICINA
/
SAUDE PUBLICA
Year:
2019
Document type:
Article