Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Anosmia and Other COVID-19 Symptomatology: Preliminary Analysis Using Google and Twitter.
Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg
; 163(3): 491-497, 2020 09.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32484425
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To determine the relative correlations of Twitter and Google Search user trends concerning smell loss with daily coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence in the United States, compared to other severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) symptoms. To describe the effect of mass media communications on Twitter and Google Search user trends. STUDYDESIGN:
Retrospective observational study.SETTING:
United States. SUBJECTS ANDMETHODS:
Google Search and "tweet" frequency concerning COVID-19, smell, and nonsmell symptoms of COVID-19 generated between January 1 and April 8, 2020, were collected using Google Trends and Crimson Hexagon, respectively. Spearman coefficients linking each of these user trends to COVID-19 incidence were compared. Correlations obtained after excluding a short timeframe (March 22 to March 24) corresponding to the publication of a widely read lay media publication reporting anosmia as a symptom of infection was performed for comparative analysis.RESULTS:
Google searches and tweets concerning all nonsmell symptoms (0.744 and 0.761, respectively) and COVID-19 (0.899 and 0.848) are more strongly correlated with disease incidence than smell loss (0.564 and 0.539). Twitter users tweeting about smell loss during the study period were more likely to be female (52%) than users tweeting about COVID-19 more generally (47%). Tweet and Google Search frequency pertaining to smell loss increased significantly (>2.5 standard deviations) following a widely read media publication linking smell loss and SARS-CoV-2 infection.CONCLUSIONS:
Google Search and tweet frequency regarding fever and shortness of breath are more robust indicators of COVID-19 incidence than anosmia. Mass media communications represent important confounders that should be considered in future analyses.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Social Media
/
Olfaction Disorders
Type of study:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
America do norte
Language:
En
Journal:
Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg
Journal subject:
OTORRINOLARINGOLOGIA
Year:
2020
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
United States