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The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture.
Zilli, Marcia; Scarabello, Marluce; Soterroni, Aline C; Valin, Hugo; Mosnier, Aline; Leclère, David; Havlík, Petr; Kraxner, Florian; Lopes, Mauricio Antonio; Ramos, Fernando M.
Affiliation
  • Zilli M; National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1.758, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil. Electronic address: marcia.zilli@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
  • Scarabello M; National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1.758, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil.
  • Soterroni AC; National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1.758, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
  • Valin H; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
  • Mosnier A; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria; Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 19 Rue Bergère, Paris 75009, France.
  • Leclère D; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
  • Havlík P; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
  • Kraxner F; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria.
  • Lopes MA; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria; Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Parque Estação Biológica, Brasilia 70770-901, Brazil.
  • Ramos FM; National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1.758, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil. Electronic address: fernando.ramos@inpe.br.
Sci Total Environ ; 740: 139384, 2020 Oct 20.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32562983
Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.
Key words

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic_studies Country/Region as subject: America do sul / Brasil Language: En Journal: Sci Total Environ Year: 2020 Document type: Article Country of publication: Netherlands

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic_studies Country/Region as subject: America do sul / Brasil Language: En Journal: Sci Total Environ Year: 2020 Document type: Article Country of publication: Netherlands