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Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation.
Eilersen, Andreas; Sneppen, Kim.
Affiliation
  • Eilersen A; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. andreaseilersen@nbi.ku.dk.
  • Sneppen K; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 18543, 2020 10 29.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33122753
The international community has been put in an unprecedented situation by the COVID-19 pandemic. Creating models to describe and quantify alternative mitigation strategies becomes increasingly urgent. In this study, we propose an agent-based model of disease transmission in a society divided into closely connected families, workplaces, and social groups. This allows us to discuss mitigation strategies, including targeted quarantine measures. We find that workplace and more diffuse social contacts are roughly equally important to disease spread, and that an effective lockdown must target both. We examine the cost-benefit of replacing a lockdown with tracing and quarantining contacts of the infected. Quarantine can contribute substantially to mitigation, even if it has short duration and is done within households. When reopening society, testing and quarantining is a strategy that is much cheaper in terms of lost workdays than a long lockdown. A targeted quarantine strategy is quite efficient with only 5 days of quarantine, and its effect increases when testing is more widespread.
Subject(s)

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Quarantine / Cost-Benefit Analysis / Coronavirus Infections / Clinical Laboratory Techniques / Pandemics Type of study: Diagnostic_studies / Health_economic_evaluation / Prognostic_studies Limits: Humans Language: En Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document type: Article Affiliation country: Denmark Country of publication: United kingdom

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Quarantine / Cost-Benefit Analysis / Coronavirus Infections / Clinical Laboratory Techniques / Pandemics Type of study: Diagnostic_studies / Health_economic_evaluation / Prognostic_studies Limits: Humans Language: En Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document type: Article Affiliation country: Denmark Country of publication: United kingdom