A novel prognostic model predicting the long-term cancer-specific survival for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.
BMC Cancer
; 20(1): 1095, 2020 Nov 11.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33176731
BACKGROUND: Hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC) is a rare type of head and neck cancer with poor prognosis. However, till now, there is still no model predicting the survival outcomes for HSCC patients. We aim to develop a novel nomogram predicting the long-term cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with HSCC and establish a prognostic classification system. METHODS: Data of 2021 eligible HSCC patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 2010 and 2015. We randomly split the whole cases (ratio: 7:3) into the training and the validation cohort. Cox regression as well as the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) COX were used to select significant predictors of CSS. Based on the beta-value of these predictors, a novel nomogram was built. The concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were utilized for the model validation and evaluation using the validation cohort. RESULTS: In total, cancer-specific death occurred in 974/2021 (48.2%) patients. LASSO COX indicated that age, race, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy are significant prognosticators of CSS. A prognostic model based on these factors was constructed and visually presented as nomogram. The C-index of the model was 0.764, indicating great predictive accuracy. Additionally, DCA and calibration curves also demonstrated that the nomogram had good clinical effect and satisfactory consistency between the predictive CSS and actual observation. Furthermore, we developed a prognostic classification system that divides HSCC patients into three groups with different prognosis. The median CSS for HSCC patients in the favorable, intermediate and poor prognosis group was not reached, 39.0-Mo and 10.0-Mo, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we constructed the first nomogram as well as a relevant prognostic classification system that predicts CSS for HSCC patients. We believe these tools would be helpful for clinical practice in patients' consultation and risk group stratification.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell
/
Hypopharyngeal Neoplasms
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Risk Assessment
/
Nomograms
Type of study:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Language:
En
Journal:
BMC Cancer
Journal subject:
NEOPLASIAS
Year:
2020
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
China
Country of publication:
United kingdom