Patterns of dengue in Nepal from 2010-2019 in relation to elevation and climate.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding and describing the regional and climatic patterns associated with increasing dengue epidemics in Nepal is critical to improving vector and disease surveillance and targeting control efforts. METHODS: We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of annual dengue incidence in Nepal from 2010 to 2019, and the impacts of seasonal meteorological conditions (mean maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) and elevation on those patterns. RESULTS: More than 25 000 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases were reported from 2010 to 2019. Epidemiological trends suggest that dengue epidemics are cyclical with major outbreaks occurring at 2- to 3-y intervals. A significant negative relationship between dengue incidence and increasing elevation (metres above sea level) driven by temperature was observed (p<0.05) with dengue risk being greatest below 500 m. Risk was moderate between 500 and 1500 m and decreased substantially above 1500 m. Over the last decade, increased nightly temperatures during the monsoon months correlated with increased transmission (p<0.05). No other significant relationship was observed between annual dengue cases or incidence and climatological factors. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis and interpretation of dengue incidence over the last decade in Nepal confirms that dengue is now a well-established public health threat of increasing importance, particularly in low elevation zones and urbanised areas with a tropical or subtropical climate. Seasonal variations in temperature during the monsoon months are associated with increased transmission.