Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 333, 2021 01 12.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33436608
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a â½55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Language:
En
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Year:
2021
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Brazil
Country of publication:
ENGLAND
/
ESCOCIA
/
GB
/
GREAT BRITAIN
/
INGLATERRA
/
REINO UNIDO
/
SCOTLAND
/
UK
/
UNITED KINGDOM