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Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.
Clark, James S; Andrus, Robert; Aubry-Kientz, Melaine; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L; Cohen, Susan; Courbaud, Benoit; Daley, Robert; Das, Adrian J; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J; Fer, Istem; Franklin, Jerry F; Gehring, Catherine A; Gilbert, Gregory S; Greenberg, Cathryn H; Guo, Qinfeng; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill; Kilner, Christopher L; Knops, Johannes; Koenig, Walter D; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M; Legg, Kristin L; Luongo, Jordan; Lutz, James A; Macias, Diana; McIntire, Eliot J B; Messaoud, Yassine; Moore, Christopher M; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A; Myers, Orrin B; Nunez, Chase; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Sam; Pearson, Scott; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Ready, Ethan; Redmond, Miranda D; Reid, Chantal D; Rodman, Kyle C; Scher, C Lane; Schlesinger, William H; Schwantes, Amanda M.
Affiliation
  • Clark JS; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA. jimclark@duke.edu.
  • Andrus R; INRAE, LESSEM, University Grenoble Alpes, Saint-Martin-d'Heres, France. jimclark@duke.edu.
  • Aubry-Kientz M; Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Bergeron Y; School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, Merced, CA, USA.
  • Bogdziewicz M; Forest Research Institute, University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, Canada.
  • Bragg DC; Department of Systematic Zoology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland.
  • Brockway D; USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Monticello, AR, USA.
  • Cleavitt NL; USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Auburn, AL, USA.
  • Cohen S; Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
  • Courbaud B; Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • Daley R; INRAE, LESSEM, University Grenoble Alpes, Saint-Martin-d'Heres, France.
  • Das AJ; Greater Yellowstone Network, National Park Service, Bozeman, MT, USA.
  • Dietze M; USGS Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA, USA.
  • Fahey TJ; Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Fer I; USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Auburn, AL, USA.
  • Franklin JF; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Gehring CA; Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Gilbert GS; Department of Biological Science, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
  • Greenberg CH; University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
  • Guo Q; USDA Forest Service, Bent Creek Experimental Forest, Asheville, NC, USA.
  • HilleRisLambers J; USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
  • Ibanez I; Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Johnstone J; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
  • Kilner CL; Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.
  • Knops J; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Koenig WD; Health and Environmental Sciences Department, Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China.
  • Kunstler G; Hastings Reservation, University of California Berkeley, Carmel Valley, CA, USA.
  • LaMontagne JM; INRAE, LESSEM, University Grenoble Alpes, Saint-Martin-d'Heres, France.
  • Legg KL; Department of Biological Sciences, DePaul University, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Luongo J; Greater Yellowstone Network, National Park Service, Bozeman, MT, USA.
  • Lutz JA; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Macias D; Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University Ecology Center, Logan, UT, USA.
  • McIntire EJB; Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA.
  • Messaoud Y; Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada.
  • Moore CM; Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, Canada.
  • Moran E; Department of Biology, Colby College, Waterville, ME, USA.
  • Myers JA; Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Myers OB; Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA.
  • Nunez C; University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA.
  • Parmenter R; Department for the Ecology of Animal Societies, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Konstanz, Germany.
  • Pearse S; Valles Caldera National Preserve, National Park Service, Jemez Springs, NM, USA.
  • Pearson S; Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
  • Poulton-Kamakura R; Department of Natural Sciences, Mars Hill University, Mars Hill, NC, USA.
  • Ready E; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Redmond MD; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Reid CD; Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
  • Rodman KC; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Scher CL; INRAE, LESSEM, University Grenoble Alpes, Saint-Martin-d'Heres, France.
  • Schlesinger WH; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
  • Schwantes AM; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1242, 2021 02 23.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33623042
ABSTRACT
Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Trees / Climate Change Type of study: Prognostic_studies Country/Region as subject: America do norte Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2021 Document type: Article Affiliation country: United States
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Trees / Climate Change Type of study: Prognostic_studies Country/Region as subject: America do norte Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2021 Document type: Article Affiliation country: United States