Effect estimates of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions are non-robust and highly model-dependent.
J Clin Epidemiol
; 136: 96-132, 2021 08.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33781862
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To compare the inference regarding the effectiveness of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 obtained from different SIR models. STUDY DESIGN ANDSETTING:
We explored two models developed by Imperial College that considered only NPIs without accounting for mobility (model 1) or only mobility (model 2), and a model accounting for the combination of mobility and NPIs (model 3). Imperial College applied models 1 and 2 to 11 European countries and to the USA, respectively. We applied these models to 14 European countries (original 11 plus another 3), over two different time horizons.RESULTS:
While model 1 found that lockdown was the most effective measure in the original 11 countries, model 2 showed that lockdown had little or no benefit as it was typically introduced at a point when the time-varying reproduction number was already very low. Model 3 found that the simple banning of public events was beneficial, while lockdown had no consistent impact. Based on Bayesian metrics, model 2 was better supported by the data than either model 1 or model 3 for both time horizons.CONCLUSION:
Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. In the SIR modeling framework, the impacts of lockdown are uncertain and highly model-dependent.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Models, Statistical
/
Physical Distancing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspects:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
En
Journal:
J Clin Epidemiol
Journal subject:
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Year:
2021
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Australia