Perioperative Predictors of Early Recurrence for Resectable and Borderline-Resectable Pancreatic Cancer.

ABSTRACT

We aimed to identify the perioperative predictors of the early recurrence (ER) of resectable and borderline-resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs). After surgery for a PDAC, most patients develop a recurrence. Predictive factors may therefore guide therapeutic decision-making. Patients (n = 234) who underwent a pancreatectomy for a PDAC between 2006 and 2019 were included. The postrecurrence survival (PRS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictive factors for an ER were assessed using logistic regression analyses; 93 patients (39.7%) were recurrence-free at the last follow-up. Patients with an ER (n = 85, 36.3%), defined as a recurrence within the first 12 months after surgery, had 1- and 2-year PRS rates of 38.7% and 9.5%, respectively, compared with 66.9% and 37.2% for those with a late recurrence (n = 56, 23.9%; both p < 0.001). The most common site of an ER was the liver (55.3%) with a significantly shorter median overall survival time than that with either a local or a lung recurrence (14.5 months; p < 0.001). Preoperative and postoperative risk factors for an ER included a tumor size >3.0 cm (odds ratio (OR) 3.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-7.14) and preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels >52 U/mL (OR 3.25, 95% CI 1.67-6.30) and a pathological tumor size >3.0 cm (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.03-3.90) and postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels >37 U/mL (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.02-4.36), respectively. Preoperatively (>52 U/mL) and postoperatively (>37 U/mL) elevated CA19-9 and a tumor size >3.0 cm were independent predictors for an ER after a pancreatectomy for a PDAC.