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A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation.
Zhu, Feng; Emile-Geay, Julien; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Hakim, Gregory J; Wittenberg, Andrew T; Morales, Mariano S; Toohey, Matthew; King, Jonathan.
Affiliation
  • Zhu F; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
  • Emile-Geay J; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
  • Anchukaitis KJ; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. julieneg@usc.edu.
  • Hakim GJ; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
  • Wittenberg AT; School of Geography, Development, and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
  • Morales MS; Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
  • Toohey M; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • King J; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 747, 2022 02 08.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35136047
The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2022 Document type: Article Affiliation country: China Country of publication: United kingdom

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2022 Document type: Article Affiliation country: China Country of publication: United kingdom