Prognostic Significance of the Relative Load of KPC-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae within the Intestinal Microbiota in a Prospective Cohort of Colonized Patients.

ABSTRACT

Increased relative bacterial load of KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-KP) within the intestinal microbiota has been associated with KPC-KP bacteremia. Prospective observational study of KPC-KP adult carriers with a hospital admission at recruitment or within the three prior months (January 2018 to February 2019). A qPCR-based assay was developed to measure the relative load of KPC-KP in rectal swabs (RLKPC, proportion of blaKPC relative to 16S rRNA gene copy number). We generated Fine-Gray competing risk and Cox regression models for survival analysis of all-site KPC-KP infection and all-cause mortality, respectively, at 90 and 30 days. The median RLKPC at baseline among 80 KPC-KP adult carriers was 0.28% (range 0.001% to 2.70%). Giannella Risk Score (GRS) was independently associated with 90-day and 30-day all-site infection (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.32, P < 0.001). RLKPC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.07, P = 0.008) and age (aHR 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.10, P = 0.008) were independent predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality in a Cox model stratified by length of hospital stay (LOHS) ≥20 days. An adjusted Cox model for 30-day all-cause mortality, stratified by LOHS ≥14 days, included RLKPC (aHR 1.03, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.06, P = 0.027), age (aHR 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.18, P = 0.004), and severe KPC-KP infection (INCREMENT-CPE score >7, aHR 2.96, 95% CI = 0.97 to 9.07, P = 0.057). KPC-KP relative intestinal load was independently associated with all-cause mortality in our clinical setting, after adjusting for age and severe KPC-KP infection. Our study confirms the utility of GRS to predict infection risk in patients colonized by KPC-KP. IMPORTANCE The rapid dissemination of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales represents a global public health threat. Increased relative load of KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-KP) within the intestinal microbiota has been associated with an increased risk of bloodstream infection by KPC-KP. We developed a qPCR assay for quantification of the relative KPC-KP intestinal load (RLKPC) in 80 colonized patients and examined its association with subsequent all-site KPC-KP infection and all-cause mortality within 90 days. Giannella Risk Score, which predicts infection risk in colonized patients, was independently associated with the development of all-site KPC-KP infection. RLKPC was not associated with all-site KPC-KP infection, possibly reflecting the large heterogeneity in patient clinical conditions and infection types. RLKPC was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality within 90 and 30 days in our clinical setting. We hypothesize that KPC-KP load may behave as a surrogate marker for the severity of the patient's clinical condition.