5-mFI is more accurate than ASA score in predicting postoperative mortality in rectal cancer: A case series of 109 patients.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of 5-mFI (modified frailty index) to ASA score (American Society of Anesthesiologists score) in predicting postoperative mortality in patients with rectal cancer. Materials and methods: The ability of each parameter to predict postoperative mortality was attested in 2 ways Area under the curve (AUC) was determined using ROC curves analysis. A comparison of AUC was performed using Delong test and Henley-McNeil test.-Multivariate analysis to determine the weight of each variable in predicting postoperative mortality. Results: The records of 109 patients undergoing surgical resection, for curative intent, for rectal cancer, were analyzed. Nine patients died during the 30-day postoperative period (8.25%). The optimum cutoff for 5-mFI to predict mortality using the ROC analysis was 1.5. The AUC at the cut-off point was 0.93. The optimum cutoff for ASA score to predict mortality was 1.5 and the AUC at the cut-off point was 0.81. The AUC of 5-mFI was significantly higher than the AUC of ASA score (p < 0.0001 using Delong test and p = 0.0024 using Hanley and McNeil test).On univariate analysis, predictive factors of mortality were age (p = 0.002), ASA score≥2 (p = 0.0001) and 5-mFI≥2 (p = 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, 5-mFI≥2 was the only factor significantly associated with increased odds of postoperative mortality (OR = 1.73; 95% CI 1.05-2.01). Conclusion: 5-mFI was more accurate than ASA score in predicting postoperative mortality in patients with rectal cancer.