Retrospective Bayesian Evidence of Null Effect in Two Decades of Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials.

ABSTRACT

Despite intense research on Alzheimer's disease, no validated treatment able to reverse symptomatology or stop disease progression exists. A recent systematic review by Kim and colleagues evaluated possible reasons behind the failure of the majority of the clinical trials. As the focus was on methodological factors, no statistical trends were examined in detail. Here, we aim to complete this picture leveraging on Bayesian analysis. In particular, we tested whether the failure of those clinical trials was essentially due to insufficient statistical power or to lack of a true effect. The strong Bayes' Factor obtained supported the latter hypothesis.