Development of a model for predicting hospital beds shortage and optimal policies using system dynamics approach.
BMC Health Serv Res
; 22(1): 1525, 2022 Dec 14.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36517811
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Policymakers use simulation-based models to improve system feedback and model the reality of the problems in the system. This study uses the system dynamics approach to provide a model for predicting hospital bed shortages and determine the optimal policy in Shiraz, Southern Iran.METHODS:
This study was designed based on Sterman's system dynamic modeling (SDM) process. Firstly, we determined the main variables affecting bed distribution using a mixed qualitative and quantitative study which includes scoping review, expert panel, Delphi, and DANP. Then, dynamic hypotheses were designed. Subsequently, we held several expert panels for designing the causal and stock-flow models, formulating and testing a simulation model, as well as developing various scenarios and policies.RESULTS:
Dynamic modeling process resulted in four scenarios. All of the scenarios predicted a shortage of national hospital beds over a 20-year time horizon. Then, four policies were developed based on the changes in the number of beds and capacity of home care services; finally, the optimal policy was determined.CONCLUSIONS:
Due to the high cost of setting up hospital beds, developing and supporting cost-effective home care services, strengthening the insurance coverage of these services, and improving the quantity and quality of community care, considering the real needs of the community could be considered as an optimal option for the future of the city.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Policy
/
Hospitals
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Qualitative_research
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
BMC Health Serv Res
Journal subject:
PESQUISA EM SERVICOS DE SAUDE
Year:
2022
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Iran
Publication country:
ENGLAND
/
ESCOCIA
/
GB
/
GREAT BRITAIN
/
INGLATERRA
/
REINO UNIDO
/
SCOTLAND
/
UK
/
UNITED KINGDOM