The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.
PLoS Med
; 20(7): e1004252, 2023 07.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37432972
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS ANDFINDINGS:
We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis.CONCLUSIONS:
Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Tuberculosis Vaccines
Type of study:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Humans
/
Infant
Language:
En
Journal:
PLoS Med
Journal subject:
MEDICINA
Year:
2023
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
United States
Publication country:
EEUU
/
ESTADOS UNIDOS
/
ESTADOS UNIDOS DA AMERICA
/
EUA
/
UNITED STATES
/
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
/
US
/
USA