Development and validation of prediction scores for the outcome associated with persistent inflammation, immunosuppression, and catabolism syndrome among patients with trauma.

ABSTRACT

Background: Persistent inflammation, immunosuppression, and catabolism syndrome (PICS) has impacted on long-term prognosis of patients with trauma. We aimed to identify patients with trauma at risk of PICS-related complications early in the intensive care unit (ICU) course. Methods: A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted. All consecutive patients with trauma who had stayed in the ICU for >7 days were included in the study. We developed the prediction score for the incidence of PICS-related outcomes in the derivation cohort for the initial period and then evaluated in the validation cohort for the subsequent period. Other outcomes were also assessed using the score. Results: In total, 170 and 133 patients were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The prediction score comprised the variables indicating PICS presence, including a maximum value of C-reactive protein >15 mg/dL, minimum value of albumin <2.5 g/dL, and an episode of nosocomial infection for the first 7 days after admission. A score of 1 was assigned to each variable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the score to predict PICS incidence was 0.74 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.81) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.81) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The higher score was also significantly associated with a higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at day 14, a longer duration of mechanical ventilation, a longer length of stay in ICU, and experienced multiple episodes of infection. Similar results were obtained in the validation cohort. Conclusions: Our scoring system could predict the outcomes associated with PICS among patients with trauma. Because the score comprised the parameters measured for the first 7 days during the ICU course, it could contribute to identifying patients at a high risk of unfavorable outcome earlier. Level of evidence Multivariate prediction models; level IV.