Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice.
Nat Commun
; 14(1): 8286, 2023 Dec 13.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38092787
ABSTRACT
Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014-2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8-16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = -0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Language:
En
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Year:
2023
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
China