Comprehensive survival nomograms for locally advanced gastric cancer: a large population-based real-world study.

ABSTRACT

Background: This study aimed to construct and verify nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC) based on a therapeutic selection, demographic factors, and pathological features. Methods: The data used for the analysis were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms were constructed based on the Cox regression model. Results: The entire cohort comprised 21,757 patients with histologically confirmed LAGC, and was randomly distributed into training and verification groups at a ratio of 21 for building the prognostic predictive model. According to the multivariate analysis, 13 variables [i.e., age, marital status, race, tumor location, pathological grade, histological type, T and N stage, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, tumor size, and regional nodes examined (RNE)] were confirmed as independent predictors for both OS and CSS. All of the significant variables were used to create the nomograms for OS and CSS. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, a decision curve analysis (DCA), the C-index, and calibration curves were applied to identify the discriminating superiority of the nomograms. Conclusions: The nomograms for OS and CSS in LAGC were built and validated based on the therapeutic selection and pathological and demographic variables using a national database. This study aims at helping clinicians make better clinical decisions and encouraging patients receive treatment actively.