Nowcast flood predictions in the Amazon watershed based on the remotely sensed rainfall product PDIRnow and artificial neural networks.

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict floods in the Branco River, Amazon basin. The input data for the models included the river levels and the average rainfall within the drainage area of the basin, which was estimated from the remotely sensed rainfall product PDIRnow. The hourly water level data used in the study were recorded by fluviometric telemetric stations belonging to the National Agency of Water. The multilayer perceptron was used as the neural framework of the ANNs, and the number of neurons in each layer of the model was determined via optimization with the SCE-UA algorithm. Most of the fitted ANN models showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values greater than 0.9. It is possible to conclude that the ANNs are effective for predicting the flood levels of the Branco River, with horizons of 6, 12 and 24 h; thus, constituting a viable option for use in river-flood warning systems in the Amazon basin. For the forecast with a 24-h horizon, it is essential to include the average rainfall of the basin that accumulated over the last 48 h as input data into the ANNs, along with the levels measured by the streamflow stations. The indirect rainfall estimates provided by PDIRnow are an excellent alternative as input data for ANN models used to predict floods and constitute a viable solution for regions where the density of rain gauge stations is low, as is the case in the Amazon basin.