Incorporating testing volume into estimation of effective reproduction number dynamics.
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc
; 187(2): 436-453, 2024 Apr.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38617598
ABSTRACT
Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number-a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak-using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of changes in the reproduction number, but is challenging to work with because cases fluctuate due to factors unrelated to the number of new infections. We develop a new model that incorporates the number of diagnostic tests as a surveillance model covariate. Using simulated data and data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in California, we demonstrate that incorporating tests leads to improved performance over the state of the art.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Language:
En
Journal:
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
United States
Publication country:
ENGLAND
/
ESCOCIA
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GB
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GREAT BRITAIN
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INGLATERRA
/
REINO UNIDO
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SCOTLAND
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UK
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UNITED KINGDOM