Forecasting Hepatitis C Virus Status for Children in the United States: A Modeling Study.
Clin Infect Dis
; 79(2): 443-450, 2024 Aug 16.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38630853
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Virtually all cases of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in children in the United States occur through vertical transmission, but it is unknown how many children are infected. Cases of maternal HCV infection have increased in the United States, which may increase the number of children vertically infected with HCV. Infection has long-term consequences for a child's health, but treatment options are now available for children ≥3 years old. Reducing HCV infections in adults could decrease HCV infections in children.METHODS:
Using a stochastic compartmental model, we forecasted incidence of HCV infections in children in the United States from 2022 through 2027. The model considered vertical transmission to children <13 years old and horizontal transmission among individuals 13-49 years old. We obtained model parameters and initial conditions from the literature and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2021 Viral Hepatitis Surveillance Report.RESULTS:
Model simulations assuming direct-acting antiviral treatment for children forecasted that the number of acutely infected children would decrease slightly and the number of chronically infected children would decrease even more. Alone, treatment and early screening in individuals 13-49 years old reduced the number of forecasted cases in children and, together, these policy interventions were even more effective.CONCLUSIONS:
Based on our simulations, acute and chronic cases of HCV infection are remaining constant or slightly decreasing in the United States. Improving early screening and increasing access to treatment in adults may be an effective strategy for reducing the number of HCV infected children in the United States.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Hepatitis C
/
Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
/
Newborn
Country/Region as subject:
America do norte
Language:
En
Journal:
Clin Infect Dis
Journal subject:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
United States