Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum.
Nat Commun
; 15(1): 3230, 2024 Apr 22.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38649361
ABSTRACT
Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Plasmodium falciparum
/
Temperature
/
Malaria, Falciparum
/
Mosquito Vectors
/
Anopheles
Limits:
Animals
/
Female
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
Language:
En
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
United States