Utilization of machine learning for dengue case screening.

ABSTRACT

Dengue causes approximately 10.000 deaths and 100 million symptomatic infections annually worldwide, making it a significant public health concern. To address this, artificial intelligence tools like machine learning can play a crucial role in developing more effective strategies for control, diagnosis, and treatment. This study identifies relevant variables for the screening of dengue cases through machine learning models and evaluates the accuracy of the models. Data from reported dengue cases in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais for the years 2016 and 2019 were obtained through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (SINAN). The mutual information technique was used to assess which variables were most related to laboratory-confirmed dengue cases. Next, a random selection of 10,000 confirmed cases and 10,000 discarded cases was performed, and the dataset was divided into training (70%) and testing (30%). Machine learning models were then tested to classify the cases. It was found that the logistic regression model with 10 variables (gender, age, fever, myalgia, headache, vomiting, nausea, back pain, rash, retro-orbital pain) and the Decision Tree and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models achieved the best results in decision metrics, with an accuracy of 98%. Therefore, a tree-based model would be suitable for building an application and implementing it on smartphones. This resource would be available to healthcare professionals such as doctors and nurses.