Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics.
J R Soc Interface
; 21(216): 20240278, 2024 Jul.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38955228
ABSTRACT
The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Population Dynamics
/
Models, Biological
Limits:
Animals
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
New Zealand
Country of publication:
United kingdom