Derivation and validation of the Ottawa weight loss prediction model for patients on a low-calorie diet.
Sci Rep
; 14(1): 18120, 2024 08 05.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39103385
ABSTRACT
Accurate weight predictions are essential for weight management program patients. The freely available National Institutes of Health Body Weight Planner (NIH-BWP) returns expected weights over time but overestimates weight when patients consume a low-calorie diet. This study sought to increase the accuracy of NIH-BWP predicted weights for people on low-calorie diets. People enrolled in a weight management program were included if they received meal replacements with defined caloric content for the 3 months of the weight loss phase of the program. The Ottawa Weight Loss Prediction Model (OWL-PM) modelled the relative difference between observed and NIH-BWP predicted weights using longitudinal analysis methods based on patient factors. OWL-PM was externally validated. 1761 people were included (mean age 46 years, 73.3% women) with a mean (SD) baseline weight in pounds and body mass index of 271.9 (55.6) and 43.9 (7.4), respectively. At the end of the program's weight loss phase, people lost a median (IQR) of 17.1% (14.8-19.5) of their baseline weight. Observed weight relative to NIH-BWP predicted weights had a median value of - 4.9% but ranged from - 32.1% to + 28.5%. After adjustment, weight overestimation by NIH-BWP was most pronounced in male patients, people without diabetes and with increased observation time. OWL-PM returned expected weights at 3 months that were significantly more accurate than those from NIH-BWP alone (mean difference observed vs. expected [95% CI] 6.7lbs [6.4-7.0] vs. 12.6lbs [12.1-13.0]). In the external validation cohort (n = 106), OWL-PM was significantly more accurate than NIH-BWP (mean squared error 24.3 vs. 40.0, p = 0.0018). OWL-PM incorporated patient-level covariates to significantly increase weight prediction accuracy of NIH-BWP in patients consuming a low-calorie diet.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Weight Loss
/
Caloric Restriction
Limits:
Adult
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
America do norte
Language:
En
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Canada
Country of publication:
United kingdom